The Spiral of Silence Effect: Synthetically produced public consensus

The “Spiral of Silence” concept was introduced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann (1974), a German political scientist, professor of Communication Research at the University of Mainz, director of the public opinion research center Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, and President of the “World Association for Public Opinion Research” from 1978 to 1980. Noelle-Neumann (1974), through the case of the Jewish experience under Nazi control during World War II, explains and reflects upon the term “spiral of silence.”

Noelle-Neumann (1974), through the case of the Jewish experience under Nazi control during World War II, explains and reflects upon the term “spiral of silence.” During World War II, the author explains that Adolf Hitler’s dominance over society led to the marginalization of minority voices, such as the Jewish voice, resulting in Jews often remaining silent out of fear of isolation, rejection, and separation.

The term by Noelle-Neumann refers to phenomenon where, when one viewpoint aims to dominate the public sphere, other perspectives could disappear from the public discussions, as individuals retreat to self-censorship and self-disciplining mechanisms out of fear of rejection, isolation and separation.

When individuals perceive themselves to be a minority or hold minority views, they are more likely to suppress their attitudes and silence their voices or opinions on particular topics. This self-censorship could arise from a fear of rejection, as individuals tend to self-discipline themselves to avoid being isolated, ridiculed, or excluded, fulfilling the basic psychological human need for belonging.

Given the objectives of various public and private actors to spread climate denialist messaging and climate disinformation in order to influence public opinion and decision-making processes, new technologies like AI or bots are making it easier for these groups to appear much larger and more powerful in the digital realm than they actually are. By leveraging tools like bots, targeted ads, and AI-generated content, these actors can spread their messages to a larger audience. This could allow them to make their disinformation campaigns appear more legitimate, even though they are often run by only a small number of people who leverage the power of automated influence (AI, bots). Through the usage of bots to spread and amplify particular narratives aimed at influencing others, narratives, disinformation and wild but typically far more engaging conspiracy theories could appear to an authentic audience as representing the attitude, opinion, or thoughts of a large group of individuals even if not the case, which may ultimately produced a false public consensus on certain issues. 

This could result in the “Spiral of Silence” effect, as the real users on digital platforms in the environment filled with synthetically engineered discussions could feel that their opinion, attitudes and thoughts are different, that they are minority. Citizens may, being driven by the fear of isolation, rejection, or ridicule self-censor themselves, withhold their opinions and thus silence their voices. This, could lead to another consequence: the suppression of genuine popular opinion by a manufactured consensus (e.g., bots), as many real users (citizens) retreat into silence.